The Rise of Gulf Smart Cities

In 2017, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman launched an ambitious $500 billion project to develop “Neom,” a futuristic “megacity” that would cover 10,230 square miles in the northwest of Saudi Arabia. Although the project has faced recent budget cuts and setbacks, it remains a major feature of Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” agenda to modernize its economy.  

Saudi Arabia is not alone in its ambitions. Large-scale “smart city” projects have expanded across the globe—spreading across the Gulf, through the wider Middle East, and everywhere from India to Brazil. What’s more, many of these initiatives are fueled by the transfer and export of Chinese and other foreign technologies, indicating their potential as vehicles for geopolitical and economic influence while also raising human rights concerns. Their growth raises promise as well as perils for the future of urban governance around the world.  

A rising trend 

So-called “smart cities” leverage digital technologies to re-design urban living and governance. Facilitated by artificial intelligence, big data, the Internet of Things (IoT), and other tools and processes, smart cities aim to offer solutions to improve everything from service delivery to security, building maintenance, and beyond. Drawing on city-wide networks of connected devices and sensors, governments can leverage new and emerging technologies to analyze data and implement tools and programs with greater accuracy and efficiency than ever before.   

These changes hold the potential to significantly transform societies, given the importance of cities for the global economy and the environment. The World Bank estimates that by 2050, some seven in ten people will live in cities. Currently home to 56% of the world’s population, cities generate an estimated 80% of global GDP. While many “smart city” development projects remain in the early stages, experts suggest they hold “substantial potential” to improve quality of life, sustainability, and other metrics in the near future. 

Gulf states’ geography has also helped, as desert landscapes offer available space for construction, enabling ambitious infrastructure projects boosted by oil wealth and centralized power. 

One part of the world seeing major investment in the development of smart cities is the Gulf, where Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have launched large-scale projects backed by billions of dollars. These projects have helped GCC states in their quests to modernize their economies, assert regional leadership, and enable further forms of top-down governance. Gulf states’ geography has also helped, as desert landscapes offer available space for construction, enabling ambitious infrastructure projects boosted by oil wealth and centralized power. 

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced his plans for Neom only months after his appointment, in an effort some say aimed to signal his power and forward-looking ambitions for the country. But, the construction of Neom has faced setbacks and slowdowns. The kingdom’s Public Investment Fund has slowed the approval of requisite budgets in the face of dips in its cash reserves. While the construction continued, only 300,000 people are projected to live there by 2030 instead of the 1.5 million it once anticipated. 

In the neighboring United Arab Emirates, the estimated $19 billion “Masdar City” green-urban development project remains underway in Abu Dhabi. As part of its efforts, the Emirati government has been advancing research and development on 6G wireless technology alongside drone delivery technology, AI-facilitated traffic management systems, and other tech-facilitated programs.  

In nearby Kuwait, as part of the country’s Vision 2035, the country has invested $4 billion in the development of the country’s first smart and “green” city, Saad Al-Abdullah, and announced ambitions to launch eight more smart cities in the future. The current project aims to house 400,000 people connected by widespread technology-supported services, including smart energy monitors and infrastructure sensors, alongside new e-government initiatives aiming to digitize service delivery. 

Promise for services and sustainability  

Smart cities offer promise for better municipal governance, improving efficiencies in everything from heating and waste management to public safety. Evidence suggests that relevant technologies can reduce fatalities from auto collisions or fires in cities by at least 8% and reduce crimes by at least 30%.  

Saudi Arabia’s Neom project has committed to supporting water desalination, solar and wind power, green hydrogen, and smart energy grids

These cities may also help improve climate and environmental outcomes, a concern top of mind in the Gulf, where efforts are underway to transition oil-reliant economies. GCC states contributed 2.4% of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2021, even though they are home to only 0.61% of the world’s population. As cities account for major contributions of emissions, technology-facilitated urban reforms can help streamline and automate processes to conserve energy. The UAE’s Masdar City runs on power from a nearby solar farm and is supported by smart design to enable walking, natural ventilation, and other practices that help reduce emissions. Saudi Arabia’s Neom project has committed to supporting water desalination, solar and wind power, green hydrogen, and smart energy grids.  

Sites for geopolitical influence 

Behind many of these projects are Chinese technology and investments. As Gulf-China relations draw closer, China has expanded its efforts to build smart cities. It is home to massive digital infrastructure programs in major urban centers, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.   

China is, in turn, exporting its technologies around the world. This tech transfer is fuelling smart cities, which have become the second-most common application for Chinese AI exports behind medical imaging. The Gulf is a prime example. According to the World Economic Forum, there has been a “surge” in tech investments between China and the GCC, which is boosted in part by China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its related $79 billion Digital Silk Road. Middle Eastern countries are a growing recipient of Chinese technology transfer and investments. In Saudi Arabia, Chinese company Huawei has announced plans to invest some $400 million in the country’s cloud region over the next five years. Huawei has also reportedly backed some of the technology in a new security program in the UAE, “police without a policeman.” Kuwait’s Saad Al-Abdullah City housing project was contracted to China’s Gezhouba Group for construction, and reports indicate that Chinese company Alibaba is working to store cloud data in Oman. 

Risks for repression 

Smart cities bring risks and can easily become sites for geopolitical influence or repressive government agendas. Many raised concerns about the spread of China’s technology to the Gulf, especially given many of the relevant companies’ ties to the Chinese government.  

These projects can put immense power in the hands of authoritarian governments, giving them access to vast amounts of personal data with the ability to track, geolocate, and otherwise surveil citizens. The Gulf states could leverage technology to enhance crackdowns on dissenters or target specific groups. Such potential is visible elsewhere in the world, as authoritarian regimes have benefitted from Chinese tech transfer to suppress democratic movements. Iran’s surveillance capabilities more than doubled in 2022, boosted by exports of Chinese video recorders, and were used in turn to crack down on protesters calling for democratic change and women’s rights. In this case, Iran allegedly used a network of urban cameras to surveil women’s public movements, using AI to identify those who did not cover their hair appropriately. Just as China’s government is criticized for its use of AI-facilitated technology and anti-democratic practices, so too are Gulf States, whose repressive practices could be boosted by smart city tools and data. 

Yet another concern is that the physical construction of such cities comes with human costs. In 2020, the controversial development of Saudi Arabia’s smart city Neom led to reported forced evictions and even the killing of one activist who protested its construction.  

A smart approach  

US policymakers concerned with the ethical development of technology governance should keep a close eye on the rise of smart cities in the Gulf. While they offer promise for global climate progress, their rise also brings clear risks. The United States, the European Union, and other actors should leverage their influence to monitor and safeguard the ways that technologies from US private firms are used in urban development abroad while ensuring investments in standards for ethical urban governance at home. Iran’s use of surveillance technology from Chinese company Tiandy, for example, prompted US sanctions in the past. Reports of Iran’s use of surveillance cameras from German company Bosch have prompted new investigations into the company’s deployment abroad.

The rise of the Gulf’s smart cities—including the news of recent setbacks governments have faced in financing these aspirational projects—will be critical to track.  

The use of AI technologies for repression in the Gulf, including technologies from US and European firms, will require close tracking. Western companies must ensure they do not contribute to the repressive toolkit governments hold to enact violence or suppress movements. The US and other nations can also consider new sanctions, as it has done in the past, against foreign companies whose technologies have supported repressive surveillance. The rise of the Gulf’s smart cities—including the news of recent setbacks governments have faced in financing these aspirational projects—will be critical to track. Those interested in the connections between technology and safe, fair, and equitable urban development worldwide should be sure to take note of their expansion in the Gulf. 

 The views represented in this piece are those of the author and do not express the official position of the Wilson Center.